Seasons
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffet
Spring greetings! This morning’s view of our boulevard reminds me that spring is indeed here, as the newly emerged chestnut leaves provide a beautiful filter for the morning sunlight through their canopy. Quite a contrast to our current season in the market.
We are all innately familiar with seasons—in nature, in life, in relationships. In the markets, we observe the progression of seasons through the language of cycles: economic cycles, industry cycles, market cycles. They are related and yet all have a distinct character and timing. At Tschetter Group, we’ve lived through many decades of these market seasons. Though it’s a fool’s game to claim certainty, much like that first nip of winter’s air in fall, one begins to develop a sense for the changing of the seasons.
As noted in our recent writing (Boundlessly Creative; World Keeps Spinning), we sensed that shift in the market air and took proactive steps to play some defense, layered on top of our ever-present commitment to maintaining valuation discipline. We’re pleased to see these actions providing a welcome ballast amid the current market decline and volatility.
Since our last market update in mid-March, new tariffs on international trade have increased uncertainty for both business decision-makers and market participants. In our view, the recession risk we’ve previously acknowledged has increased as this uncertainty could slow economic activity. We’ll, of course, be carefully monitoring developments as they unfold.
We acknowledge times like these may produce fear, anxiety, doubt, and a whole range of other feelings. We are privileged to walk alongside you during these moments, as your partner in navigating life and money. Times like these can test our patience and resolve. However, just as surely as difficult markets come, they will surely pass. In fact, we’re already underway to shift from defense to offense as attractive investment opportunities are bound to arise in times like these.
Perhaps you can relate that in difficult seasons of all kinds, as much as we love the idea of the easy fix—whether giving or receiving—it’s often more about our ability to stay in it together. In market environments like this, that tempting idea of an “easy fix” is bailing out of the market. We are strongly convicted, emboldened by our long experience, that the better way is staying invested in a disciplined, long-term strategy. Our success will be driven by time in the market, not timing the market.
These are times to lean IN to our partnership. We will be leaning in with you, and we ask that you do the same. Staying in good touch is critical, especially if your liquidity needs or goals change. Thank you for your continued confidence in us. If there’s anything we can do to help you, or if there’s anyone you know that could use a partner to be in it with them, please let us know. Now is the time!
With Optimism,
Dustin Brumbaugh, CFA®, ADVISOR | CEO/CIO
Sources: Tschetter Group, FactSet, Oaktree Capital, JP Morgan
Important Disclosures
The content of this article is provided for general information purposes only and is presented solely as our opinion. The information was compiled from sources that we believe to be reliable, however, we cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. This article is based on the information available to us as of the date of this article and may change at any time. Tschetter Group does not provide tax and legal advice. Please consult your legal and tax professional for specific information.
Tschetter Group (“TG”) is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information provided by TG (or any portion thereof) may not be copied or distributed without TG’s prior written approval. All statements are current as of the date written and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Risk Disclosure Statement: All investments include a risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear.
