Progress
“Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.”
-George Bernard Shaw
As we put 2025 in the rear view and welcome this new year, a word rises to the surface: progress. And we observe that progress rarely announces itself in advance or takes the exact form we expect. More often, it moves beneath the surface, taking shape amid uncertainty, discomfort, and moments when clarity feels elusive.
The last five years have provided a wonderful reminder and illustration of the importance of staying invested. In early 2020, when the global COVID pandemic emerged (yes, cringe and wince, we know—we have done our best to put it out of our memory) and vast swaths of the global economy shut down, we scarcely could imagine the progress that would soon emerge.
Three years ago, we wrote in our year-end letter about the month-old launch of a novel technology product: ChatGPT. Since then, an unprecedented wave of technological progress and investment has been unleashed in and around artificial intelligence, reshaping how work gets done, how ideas are formed, and how value is created across the global economy. It has also served as fuel for a remarkable advance in stock market returns.
Moments like this naturally raise questions. Are expectations too high? Are valuations stretched? Are we reliving familiar chapters from past technological revolutions? These are good questions to ask. One of our favorite investors, Howard Marks, recently shared an insightful memo exploring these questions in depth with a title question “Is it a Bubble?” There are many nuggets of wisdom here, though I’ll just share a couple choice ideas that align well with our investment posture.
“Bubbles based on revolutionary developments accelerate technological progress and create the foundation for a more prosperous future.”
“Since no one can say definitively whether this is a bubble, I’d advise that no one should go all-in without acknowledging that they face the risk of ruin if things go badly. But by the same token, no one should stay all-out and risk missing out on one of the great technological steps forward. A moderate position, applied with selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach.”
This framing resonates deeply with us. Progress and excess often travel together. The danger is not in progress itself, but in losing our footing as enthusiasm builds. In markets, as in life, discipline often matters most when excitement is highest. The first quote embodies our “Invest with Optimism” mantra; progress continually asserts itself, driving confidence in our ability to generate attractive long-term investment returns. The second highlights the critical importance of discipline in investing, keeping a cool head when others may be losing theirs.
You can count on our investment team to keep you well positioned in a dynamic market while maintaining discipline. We are mindful of elevated near-term market valuations while having immense confidence in the long-term prospects for the investments we’re making across strategies. And again, we are pleased to report strong portfolio returns for you in 2025.
Of course, the market and investment returns are but one element of progress we are driving toward every day. It amounts to seeing progress on all fronts for YOU, your family, your businesses, your communities. We can’t say enough what a privilege it is to be invited into your journey of life and money.
We have countless inspiring stories of progress we see our TG clients making every day: in relationships, in health, in business endeavors, in generosity of time and resources. On this last front, we recently had the opportunity to thank our broader TG community for the impact made this holiday season through our annual giving tree. These are things that matter. THANK YOU.
At the heart of all of this is partnership and we look forward to leaning even further into it with you in 2026. As always, please do let us know if anyone in your world could use a partnership like ours in life & money – we’d be happy to help.
Looking into this new year with plenty of uncertainty AND optimism, wishing you prosperity in all its dimensions.
With Optimism,
Dustin Brumbaugh, CFA®, ADVISOR | CEO/CIO
Disclosure
This material is for informational purposes only and reflects our views as of the date published. Tschetter Group is an SEC-registered investment adviser. This content does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal.
Sources: Tschetter Group
